Analysts pull Mac sales numbers out of a hat

Apple's Mac sales are up. Unless they're down, say analysts.

Second-quarter estimates of Mac sales by Gartner Inc. and IDC split yesterday, with the former saying Apple's numbers were up 2.5% over the same quarter last year and the latter saying they were, in fact, down 12.4% year-over-year.

"We may revisit our numbers next week, and get more aggressive," acknowledged Loren Loverde, director of IDC's quarterly PC sales tracker. Apple is scheduled to present its second-quarter Mac sales numbers and revenue on Tuesday.

According to Gartner, Apple sold an estimated 1.42 million Macs in the U.S. for the quarter ending June 30, a 2.5% bump from the 1.39 million Macs sold in the same quarter last year. If accurate, it would be the first time since the fourth quarter of 2008 that Apple's sales have grown; during the first three months of this year, Mac sales were down 3% from the same period in 2008.

IDC, however, had different numbers, and put U.S. Mac sales at 1.21 million, down 12.4% from 2008's 1.39 million. "The biggest factor is that a year ago Apple was growing by 30-plus points each quarter," said Loverde. "It's very difficult to maintain these high growth numbers."

Wall Street analyst Brian Marshall, of Broadpoint AmTech, meanwhile, said in a research note Monday that he pegs Mac sales at 2.78 million worldwide. Apple, however, sells more Macs in the U.S. than in any other market.

IDC's estimates of Apple's sales dropped the computer maker into the fifth spot, behind Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Acer and Toshiba. Acer in particular, and Toshiba to a lesser extent, have benefited from the surge in sales of netbooks, the small, light and inexpensive notebooks, said Loverde. U.S. sales for Acer, for instance, grew 51% last quarter, while Toshiba's jumped 34%.

Apple has no product in the netbook category, a sin of omission in the minds of most financial analysts. Its lowest-priced notebook is the $999 MacBook, a machine priced double or triple that of most netbooks.

"There may be a little pressure here for Apple from Wall Street," said Loverde, "but does Apple have to have a netbook? No, they don't. Apple is a very unique company in a lot of ways, and if you look at their whole history, people are always saying they have to do this, have to do that, but they've struck their own path."

That pressure to so something, anything, may be about to ease, Loverde said, citing projections by IDC that while netbook sales will likely continue to grow at double-digit rates, the continuing freefall in ASPs, or average sale prices, won't outlast the year.

"ASPs are falling about 15% annually now," said Loved, but that type of impact won't stick around past 2009."

Even if IDC's numbers do prove out - and end up closer to Apple's than Gartner's - Loverde said not to spill any tears for the company. "The main point with Apple is that they're very well-positioned. They're not a run-of-the-mill company, and they've done well in the past. There's no reason why that should change."

On the plus side for Apple, Loverde said, is the recent price cuts to its MacBook Pro line. A month ago, the company dropped prices between 6.3% and 28%, with the smallest cuts at the low end for the 13-in. MacBook Pro and the largest for the high-end MacBook Air.

And a so-called "tweener" device - priced between the iPod Touch and the low-end MacBook - may yet boost Apple's sales volume, said Loverde. "It wouldn't surprise me to see that," he said. "But it wouldn't be a run-of-the-mill netbook."

Recent reports out of Taiwan have cited sources in the country's electronics industry that claim Apple has placed orders with a trio of manufacturers for components that will be used to build a small-sized computer or tablet with a 9.7-in. screen that would sell for about $800. The device, which some have dubbed an "iPad," will debut in October, those same sources said.

Europe moves to develop standard mobile phone chargers

Wouldn't it be nice if all our mobile gadgets connected to one universal charger? According to the vice president of the European Commission, Gunter Verheugen, it's not only possible, it's already on the drawing board.Steps are being taken to standardize mobile-phone chargers, though a universal charger for all mobile devices will take longer. The Commission claims some of the credit for the agreement reached among mobile phone makers, which earlier this year said they would pursue a universal charger for all phones.Verheugen welcomed the agreement signed by 10 phone makers, including all the biggest names in the industry that account for more than 90 percent of all Europen mobile phone sales. However, he said that if the industry had failed to reach a voluntary agreement, the Commission would have drafted legislation ordering the standardization of phone chargers. Verheugen said the original plan was to push for a universal charger for all devices. "It would have taken much longer [to get an agreement on one charger for all mobile devices], so we decided to tackle mobile phones first and at the same time we continue to discuss with the industry the other products," he said on Monday.Inventing a small charger that powers a cell phone and a laptop is a challenge, the commissioner said.

Laptops require almost 100 times more electricity to charge than a mobile phone, he said.Energy efficiency and safety issues must be overcome when developing a single charger for all gadgets, Verheugen said. "We are working on that, I hope it is possible," he said.Bridget Cosgrave, director general of Digital Europe, a trade group representing IT manufacturers of a wide range of mobile devices, said it might be possible to duplicate the harmonized phone charger idea for other devices but added that there are no plans along those lines presently.Cosgrave shared the podium with Verheugen a press conference in Brussels. She didn't comment on the idea of one charger for laptops as well as smaller mobile divices.Susan Smith, a spokesperson for Nokia, said the company "is not looking at this as a possibility," and added she isn't sure it would be technically possible given the varying power needs of different devices.Mobile phones require around 1.5 watts while laptops need close to 100 watts. That's why a mobile phone charger is a tenth the size of a laptop charger. Universal chargers for various devices already exist but they are the size of laptop chargers, so they waste a lot of energy if they are used just to charge a mobile phone.There are currently between 350 millon and 400 million active mobile phones in circulation in the European Union, the Commission said. People are replacing their phones at a rate of 180 million per year.The first generation of universal phone chargers will be distributed from around mid next year, Verheugen said. All phones will run off the universal charger within two to three years, the commissioner said.

Symantec, McAfee to pay fines over auto-renewals

Antivirus vendors Symantec and McAfee have agreed to pay the New York Attorney General's office US$375,000 in fines to settle charges that they automatically charged customers software subscription renewal fees without their permission.

Investigators found that the two companies had "failed to adequately disclose to consumers that subscriptions would automatically be renewed and that consumers would be charged," the office of Andrew Cuomo said in a statement Wednesday announcing the settlement. "Companies cannot play hide the ball when it comes to fees consumers are being charged."

In addition to paying the settlement fine, Symantec and McAfee will now make better disclosures about subscription renewal fees when customers sign up, the attorney general's office said.

Security companies have been offering automatic renewals to their customers for nearly a decade now, but in the past few year it's become much more common in the antivirus industry. McAfee and Symantec say that they prevent customers from having out-of-date antivirus software on their computers. That may make customers safer, but it also makes company investors happy because renewal fees keep rolling in.

Symantec began enrolling North American customers in automatic renewal by default in November 2005, and has since expanded the practice worldwide. McAfee began the practice in 2001. Under these programs, customers pay upfront for a one-year subscription and then, a year later, are automatically billed for the next year's service.

The companies say they have been working with the Cuomo's office for the past two years to improve practices and they have now made it easier to understand and opt out of their respective auto-renewal features

For example, Symantec has now modified its online shopping cart to include better disclosures and an explanation of how to opt out of the program.

Norton users who want to unsubscribe from Symantec's program, can do so on their Norton Account Web page, Symantec said. If you're a U.S. McAfee user, you can call customer support at 1 866 622 3911.

Both companies will now refund auto-renewal fees within 60 days of the charge, Cuomo's office said.